Alienq's 2010 Predictions

[Alienq]

So with the new Year poised by midnight tonight, I have the following adult industry predictions.

1: GFY will be sold off to another company in early 2010 to mid 2010.

2: Content theft will be curbed with highly secure measures by an unsaid content protection company using a new innovative technique.

3: The Year of Mobile will arise and cement itself as teh primary viewers choice when surfing. Check your stats and start detecting browser types. Expect to see more Blackberry clients and Safari and other mobile based clients pick up sharply in early 2010 and steadily increase.

4: Numerous "large" companies will be going down in flames. IE: Having 40 niches under one program will no longer be a priority business model. 2010 will be the year of "Boutique Porn Providers". Meaning companies with a specific Niche will fair far better than predeccessor business models of several Niches.

5: 2010 will be the world of blog and social networking traffic explosions. Adult Bloggers that specialise in a specific niche will not only see SEO improve but the demand for paid ad space pick up. THats right... People will pay you for ad space on a well traffic'd blog this year.

6: I predict 3 dead processor's in 2010 and one of them will be quite a surprise as they drop adult transactions.

7: New revenue streams will become avilable in the adult market space with older concepts that are slightly modified such as Audio Text, and Live Chat via SMS/MMS. Newer features will be mobile based live shows and Live action to Mobile based traffic.

8: Virtual girl friends. Thats right Virtual girlfriends that send messages and keep ongoing "Relationships" with a partner. Yes she will cheat and yes she will have her own demands, and yes she will be sending you pictures. Virtually speaking.

9: Girl Friend sites and Solo Girl sites will continue to do very well in the industry. 2010 is the year of unique and exclusive content. Anyone not making use of Exclusive content will feel the burn. So get a hot model and start producing your own content or face the consequences.

10: 2010 will be the year that marks the men from the boy's. Every year we see people come and go. This year we will see many come but most everyone go, while a smaller handful of people tough it out and others celebrate growing market share with less competition. 2010 will have huge cut backs in the industry and company closures, those running the tightest budget's and offering quality services will excell very well in 2010. In short only the best of the best of the internet savey will survive, being the best just won't be good enough in 2010.

[aico]

I am already working on #8...

[Rochard]

A lot of that sounds very true....

[DonovanTrent]

I see a lot in there that makes sense. I particularly would like to see #2 come to fruition. Even just DRM, it's a shame that DRM was released before it was "ready for prime time" as much of it works quite seamlessly now. It just has a terrible reputation, well-deserved from past implementations, but current implementations are really worth a second look.

[aico]

I see a lot in there that makes sense. I particularly would like to see #2 come to fruition. Even just DRM, it's a shame that DRM was released before it was "ready for prime time" as much of it works quite seamlessly now. It just has a terrible reputation, well-deserved from past implementations, but current implementations are really worth a second look.

The problem wasn't DRM, the problem was competing sites using the No-DRM as a selling tool against sites that did use it. If you have a strong niche site, I believe you could use DRM successfully, as long as you were the best site in that Niche, although you would still lose some members to the non-DRM sites. Broad non-niche porn sites, forget about it, but as stated in Aliens original post, I feel those type of sites will be a thing of the past soon.

[MP]

The problem wasn't DRM, the problem was competing sites using the No-DRM as a selling tool against sites that did use it. If you have a strong niche site, I believe you could use DRM successfully, as long as you were the best site in that Niche, although you would still lose some members to the non-DRM sites. Broad non-niche porn sites, forget about it, but as stated in Aliens original post, I feel those type of sites will be a thing of the past soon.

Exactly DRM will never work unless it's a Bestiality site, just the way it is.

[DonovanTrent]

The problem wasn't DRM, the problem was competing sites using the No-DRM as a selling tool against sites that did use it. If you have a strong niche site, I believe you could use DRM successfully, as long as you were the best site in that Niche, although you would still lose some members to the non-DRM sites. Broad non-niche porn sites, forget about it, but as stated in Aliens original post, I feel those type of sites will be a thing of the past soon.

Exactly DRM will never work unless it's a Bestiality site, just the way it is.

I understand what you're saying but you're ignoring exclusivity. I agree with the non-niche general sites, but if you're in a niche and you have EXCLUSIVE content, DRM'ing it should not hurt you. Licensed content within the niche is another story, sure the surfer can get it elsewhere, but if you're shooting your own stuff, then it's worth protecting.

I would argue that true solo girl sites where the girl's involved, and it's not just an unofficial site full of licensed content, shouldn't see dropoff due to DRM. All of this assumes you're using a DRM system that is transparent to the member.

But this is getting off track, back to predictions about 2010...

[dgchi]

interesting predictions

the virtual girlfriend concept will probably be a continual growth over the next years as technology and AI start to get better and better and it won't only be a virtual girlfriend idea as much as the distinction between talking to a computer vs. a real person online will become harder and harder to distinguish

[halfpint]

Doing No3 already have all mobile traffic redirected on all of my sites

[LezGeri]

Why would anyone want to watch porn on a blackberry when they have a computer to do it on?

Unless they're a bunch of kids hanging around on the street having a laugh.

[dizmo]

Why would anyone want to watch porn on a blackberry when they have a computer to do it on?

I dont get it either, but the reality tells a different story, people do use their handheld devices for porn, so just because I dont get it, its not gonna stop me from promoting and pushing our sites for these people/devices.

[LezGeri]

I dont get it either, but the reality tells a different story, people do use their handheld devices for porn, so just because I dont get it, its not gonna stop me from promoting and pushing our sites for these people/devices.

Which people?

Are they using it for free porn or paid porn? - Well both I'm sure. But are sales significant in this market?

And if they are then what niches?

Are sales good for only certain niches?

Is gay porn a seller for handheld devices for example?

[artwilliams]

I hate to say it but as I get older -- close to 50 now -- there is more "I don't get it" stuff in my life. Watching porn on a mobile device is one of them but hey, whatever!

[DonovanTrent]

Why would anyone want to watch porn on a blackberry when they have a computer to do it on?

Unless they're a bunch of kids hanging around on the street having a laugh.

Mute the sound and it makes it possible to jack off to porn in the bathroom at office or home. Just guessing.

[LezGeri]

Mute the sound and it makes it possible to jack off to porn in the bathroom at office or home. Just guessing.

Sounds like more of free porn quickie type thing to me. You can get headphones for a Blackberry anyway.

I guess I can see a market for people traveling on business who either aren't taking a laptop with them or want, or have, to keep their laptop for biz only and completely free of porn.

[dizmo]

Which people?

The people with the mobile browsers in server logs.

Are they using it for free porn or paid porn? - Well both I'm sure. But are sales significant in this market?

I have no clue, yet. But a lot of big programs are pushing for the mobile market so it would be silly to just sit and complain and ignore it, instead of following. or at least trying.

And if they are then what niches?

Any, and none. One niche might work to push, for you. While the same niche wont work for someone else.

Are sales good for only certain niches?

Same as above.

Is gay porn a seller for handheld devices for example?

Same as above.

[dimitar]

I like your prediction on 5)